Likud Splits on Election Prospects as Nonprofit Turnout Push Targets Tuesday Vote

Party officials within Likud are divided on their chances of winning the Israeli election scheduled for Tuesday, October 27. The split stems from conflicting assessments of voter sentiment and the intensity of a coordinated effort by independent organizations to drive turnout among Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's opponents.

A survey released days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided. Inside the party, confidence is polarized around the internal polling conducted by Shlomo Filber. One source described the situation as binary: "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other." Other members expressed doubt, fearing that high turnout among anti-Netanyahu voters could tip the balance.

The primary source of anxiety is a widespread campaign run by nonprofits and other organizations. Party sources claim these groups are directing substantial funds toward mobilizing voters in the rival camp. The reported activities include social media advertising, street signage, field events, transportation for Arab voters, and initiatives to bring Israeli expatriates home to cast ballots. One Likud member characterized the effort as "the nonprofits affair on steroids," arguing that the groups provide opposition parties with a support network that operates outside standard party financing rules.

Likud has also criticized the Central Elections Committee for its enforcement priorities. The party alleges the committee focused heavily on limiting campaign videos and public resource usage while paying insufficient attention to the independent groups' activities. Although sources described the funding and the campaign's scale, they did not provide documentation for the amounts cited or proof that the activity violated the law.

In preparation for Election Day, Likud is organizing a ground operation focused on preventing right-wing votes from shifting to smaller parties. The party recently attempted to convince Brig. Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, a former Givati Brigade commander leading the People of Israel party, to drop out of the race. Those efforts failed after Rabbi Eli Sadan spoke with Winter, who subsequently issued a statement supporting his continued candidacy.

Likud is also seeking agreements with other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already withdrawn from the race following discussions with Likud. During those talks, the possibility of new legislation allowing the party to appoint a deputy minister was considered. The election date allows Netanyahu's government to complete its full term.