ICJ to deliver ruling on Myanmar's 2017 Rohingya violence

The International Court of Justice will determine whether Myanmar committed genocide against the Rohingya people, a decision that could mark the first time the body holds a state responsible for the crime. Judge Yuji Iwasawa, the court's president, is scheduled to read the verdict at a public sitting in The Hague on 19 November at 10 a.m. local time. The ruling will be final and binding, leaving the losing party without a right of appeal.

The dispute traces back to 2019, when The Gambia filed a case with the court. The west African nation brought the claim on behalf of the Rohingya, a predominantly Muslim minority, after a military campaign in Rakhine State began on 25 August 2017. That operation, led by then-commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing, displaced more than 700,000 people into Bangladesh. Today, approximately 1.2 million Rohingya reside in camps near Cox's Bazar, which is considered the world's largest refugee settlement.

The Gambia argues that the military's actions breached the 1948 Genocide Convention. Legal submissions cite roughly 10,000 killings, systematic sexual violence, and decades of restrictions on marriage and movement. Antonia Mulvey, a human rights lawyer who represented Rohingya witnesses, noted that survivors described gang rapes in public and in front of family members. She stated that the scale and brutality of this violence were distinct from previous cases before the court.

Myanmar denies the charge of genocide, maintaining that its forces were conducting a counterterrorism response to attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army. The military argues there is no direct evidence of intent to destroy the group and that its goal was to drive the Rohingya out of the country rather than eliminate them. Myanmar has submitted 12 reports on its compliance with a 2020 court order to prevent genocidal acts, which the Gambia has called insufficient.

Eleven states, including the United States, Canada, France, and the United Kingdom, have intervened in the case. Legal experts indicate the outcome will influence other ongoing genocide proceedings, such as South Africa's case against Israel. The ICJ has previously ruled on the merits of genocide cases only twice, in 2007 and 2015. This judgment will also address how the court applies the legal test for genocidal intent when no explicit policy document exists.

If the court finds Myanmar responsible, the state will be required to provide reparation to the Rohingya. The specific remedies, such as compensation or domestic legal reforms, may be determined in a later phase. If Myanmar fails to comply, The Gambia can refer the matter to the UN Security Council, although that body has never previously enforced an ICJ ruling.