SpaceX Earnings: Analysts Revise Targets Upward After Strong Quarter

The aerospace and technology sector saw a major shift in sentiment this week as Wall Street analysts rapidly adjusted their forecasts for SpaceX. Following the release of third quarter 2026 results after the market closed on October 20, a wave of price target increases swept across major financial institutions. The stock responded immediately, trading sharply higher in both after-hours and premarket sessions as investors digested the new data and revised expectations.

The financial report itself revealed a period of exceptional growth. The company reported revenue of $14.6 billion, a 161 percent increase year-over-year that significantly exceeded the consensus estimate of approximately $12.7 billion. Profitability also improved markedly, with the firm posting a net profit of $4.4 billion, a reversal from a loss in the same period the previous year. Adjusted EBITDA reached $8.8 billion, underscoring the operational strength behind the top-line growth.

Two primary business units drove this performance. The Super Intelligence division, which focuses on artificial intelligence, generated roughly $7.6 billion in revenue. This segment became the largest contributor to the company's income, growing nearly 830 percent from the prior year. Meanwhile, the Connectivity segment delivered $5.2 billion, fueled by strong subscriber additions that expanded the Starlink consumer base to 13.6 million users.

Reactions from the investment community were swift and positive. JPMorgan more than doubled its price target to $500 from $240, maintaining an Overweight rating. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $345, while Barclays and Morgan Stanley both set targets at $300. Other firms, including Citi, UBS, TD Cowen, Wells Fargo, and Clear Street, also moved their estimates higher. Analysts cited the strong quarterly results, the acceleration of AI compute expansion, and progress in Starship milestones as key drivers for these upward revisions.

The earnings call provided further context for the optimism. CEO Elon Musk and CFO Bret Johnsen outlined first quarter 2027 revenue guidance between $33 billion and $37 billion. This projection far exceeded the approximately $22 billion that analysts had previously modeled. The executives also detailed fourth quarter capital expenditure plans of $35 billion to $40 billion, with a specific focus on AI compute infrastructure in locations such as Memphis and Southaven.

Management outlined aggressive timelines for infrastructure development, targeting 2.5 to 3 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity by the end of the year. They discussed pathways to reach 13 gigawatts or more by the end of 2027. Musk noted relentless demand from hyperscalers, stating that compute pricing supports payback periods of less than a year, and potentially as short as six months. Additional highlights included Starship orbital successes, V3 satellite deployment, and the formation of committees to explore a possible combination with Tesla.

As of the premarket trading on October 21, shares, which had closed at $147.79 the previous day, jumped roughly 8 percent. The average analyst price target has moved higher, reflecting greater conviction in the company's trajectory across launch, connectivity, and its AI business. While elevated spending remains a point of focus for some investors, the current market reaction suggests that the long-term growth outlook is now viewed with significantly more confidence.